Point Process Crime Prediction

The New York Times reported today on predictive policing, or deploying officers where crimes are predicted to occur in the future. According to the Times, “Based on models for predicting aftershocks from earthquakes, [the method used in Santa Cruz, CA] generates projections about which areas and windows of time are at highest risk for future crimes”. The statistical work was done by George Mohler of Santa Clara University and Martin Short of UCLA. Kudos to them for an interesting and useful application of point processes.

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The Statistics Forum, brought to you by the American Statistical Association and CHANCE magazine, provides everyone the opportunity to participate in discussions about probability and statistics and their role in important and interesting topics.

The views expressed here are those of the individual authors and not necessarily those of the ASA, its officers, or its staff. The Statistics Forum is edited by Andrew Gelman.

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